Dolar Melemah Karena Data Campuran

Dolar melemah karena penurunan lebih besar dari perkiraan dalam sentimen konsumen AS dan diimbangi menguatnya secara tak terduga dalam kegiatan manufaktur untuk bulan Juni.

Euro diperdagangkan pada $ 1,4527, sedikit berubah dari sebelumnya di level $ 1,4502. Sudah diperdagangkan sekitar $ 1,4469 sebelum data AS. British pound naik 0,3% diperdagangkan pada level $ 1,6069, sementara euro turun 0,02% pada sterling diperdagangkan pada 90,29 pence setelah naik setinggi 90,87 pence tingkat paling tinggi sejak Maret 2010. Dolar berada di level ¥ 80,82, naik dari level sebelumnya di ¥ 80,47.

Bantuan untuk Yunani diharapkan tidak menjadi sentimen Buruk

Bursa Eropa pada perdagangan Jumat mengakhiri rally selama empat hari. Kekhawatiran krisis Yunani sudah reda dan data ekonomi AS yang kuat.

Selama ini penguatan ini didukung ekspektasi voting di parlemen Yunani yang menyetujui penghematan. Ada harapan terhadap bantuan Yunani sehingga tidak menjadi sentimen buruk di pasar. Tidak ada kejutan karena kami melihat apakah konsumen AS menunjukan kenaikan atau tidak.

Ada harapan pemulihan ekonomi global walaupun belum ada kepastian negara penggeraknya. Sebab laju ekonomi China juga melambat dengan ancaman inflasi tinggi. Pasar tinggal mengharapkan laporan keuangan kuartal II.

Aussie Interest Rates helpful info, but Being at Level Saturated Buy

Aussie higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia said the need for higher interest rates. "If economic conditions develop according to expectations, the higher interest rates is needed if inflation is consistent with the medium-term targets,"the RBA minutes released Tuesday. Finance Minister Martin Parkinson also optimistic that the Aussie will follow the good trail and export performance will remain at high levels for a while.

"Minutes of the meeting were optimistic and raised the RBA rate hike expectations," said Mitul Kotecha, strategic Credit Agricole. "Overall, positive impact for the Aussie. No statement did not mention the RBA will raise interest rates. "Credit Suisse index swaps show the RBA will raise interest rates by 34 basis points over the next 12 months, more than likely 28 basis points on 3 May.

Viewed from the stochastic indicator, the Aussie has been at level 80 which indicates that the Aussie was at overbought levels. The Aussie has the potential to back down to the nearest support level at 1.0578. While the nearest resistance level at 1.0633

Sterling Yen Bullish?

Japanese currency erodes the fall yesterday to reach the peak of 80.98. Yen is still in a period ranging with the projection has not changed, traded between 80.10 and 81.40 since mid last week.

"Indicators per hour shows a bearish signal is thin, the price of losing momentum in high school under 20," said Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst FXStreet.com. While the indicators of JPY 4 hour show is still constrained below the middle and moving up. "Moves Sideways, the yen should recovered above the 81.50 area to continue to rise, "said Bednarik. Meanwhile, if broken below the 80.00 level, a bearish acceleration might lead to a closer level of 79.00 yen.

For the pound sterling strengthened traded in the range of 1.6280 after the release of CPI inflation data exceeded expectations. The focus of the next market will be focused on meeting the EU Finance Ministers for European sovereign debt crisis resolution.

Based on technical studies, intraday bias is still bullish, especially after successfully penetrating consistently GBP upwards to target the 1.6250 key resistance area at 1.6320. But as long as price is still trading below 1.6380 area is still dominant bearish outlook

DISCUSSION OF DATA AND TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS (17 MEI 2011)

EUR

Bailout 78 billion euros to Portugal and Greece postponement of decision for the days of difficulty until the meeting next month negative impact the weakening euro in the next few trading sessions. Nikko Sekurities analyst predicts the euro may weaken to levels of 1:33. Strengthening above the 1.4150 level will trigger a rally kelevel 1.4252, 1.4345 and 1.4450. The weakening below 1.4150 level will trigger a rally kelevel 1.4056, 1.3960 and 1.3860. Euro likely to weaken if it fails again rose steadily above the 1.4180 resistance level daily.

Recommendation: Sell / Buy Euro dilevel 1.4200 with a target profit taking dilevel 1.4015, 1.3905 and 1.3730 with target 1.4300 stop loss.

JPY

Statement of the Japanese Central Bank Governor who said the economy in a very difficult situation after the tsunami and earthquake effects provide the fundamental impetus for the weakening yen disesi asia.Penguatan below level will trigger a rally kelevel 80.83 80.62, 80.40 and 80.83 80.19.Pelemahan above level will trigger a rally kelevel 81.05 , 81.27 and stable above 81.48.Pelemahan 81.25-81.45 level will give a strong signal of the weakening yen rally towards the target level of consolidation 81.85-82.30.

Swiss banking giant, UBS and Credit Suisse to protest rising above 19% CAR

SWISS. Two leading Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse which staged a protest against the draft banking legislation that would raise the capital adequacy ratio of 19%. It was delivered by UBS and Credit Suisse officials at a meeting of a parliamentary commission to discuss draft law on the too big too fail in the Swiss financial firms.

Capital ratio is expected to more than 19% are in contrast very far from Basel III agreement that only 10.5%. UBS and Credit Suisse consider this to be burdensome and reduce their competitiveness. The two giant banks is known to have a balance sheet which, when combined value more than doubled the Swiss economy.

In response to these protests, the monetary authorities of the Swiss National Swiss bank confirmed that Swiss banks must be protected from the possibility of growing very large so it will be included in the category of too big too fail.

Speculative Euro Stronger Against U.S. Dollar

Recent data releases are expected to potentially signaling a decline in economic performance in the European Union, observed early in speculative responded that the Euro was observed to move opposite direction to the estimated number of ZEW Economic Sentiment ekonom.Spekulasi that will show better performance than these estimates lead to the strengthening of currency movements Euro noon today

End U.S. Stimulus Will Hit Hard Gold More Than Oil

The end of quantitative easing, or so-called quantitative easing (QE), the U.S. will have a negative impact on gold, but demand for oil and industrial metals will continue to support if there is real economic growth, said Jeff Currie of Goldman Sachs.

"Gold is likely to directly reflect what is happening with QE, and we might see a big setback," said Currie, who heads commodities research at the investment bank.

Speaking at a Platts oil conference on Friday, Currie said the precious metal has been running behind quantitative easing, which has reduced the value of paper money.

Oil and industrial metals, on the other hand, has increased due to fears of supply shortages. If real, sustainable economic growth has been generated from the QE process, there may be some slowing of growth, but still can support the demand for industrial commodities, he said.

"We think at least 12 months away before we see some physical problems began to emerge again, that's why we argue for a correction in the near future," said Currie.

"But if the economy were to survive together, we believe oil will begin to look like agricultural products, with real physical shortages and higher prices."

Gold Distressed sluggish U.S. Dollars

Gold fell on Friday, with a sharp turn from the initial rise, as the dollar surges against the euro and the recent uncertainty about the euro zone debt crisis prompted investors to sell ahead of the weekend.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $ 1,492.70 per ounce at the close of this morning, after earlier climbing as high as $ 1,516.50. U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell $ 13.20 to $ 1,493.60, after trading in the range of $ 1,482 to $ 1,516.50.

For this week, gold ended flat after slumping almost 5% last week in a blow to commodities.

Previously the beginning of the session, gold rose after data showed gasoline and food prices lifted U.S. inflation to 2-1/2 year highs in April, but there is little sign of the larger implications of rising consumer prices will complicate the Federal Reserve.

Gold depressed as U.S. dollar toward the highest six weeks against the euro because of concerns about the global economy pushed the dollar back into the market.

Precious metals have been pressured by worries about dollar strength, ahead of a meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers, followed by the Ecofin meeting of EU finance ministers on Monday, which could provide further direction to the euro. The single currency will likely remain under pressure until at least after investors digested the final result.

Silver continues to recover from last week's 25% correction. Silver rose 1.2% at $ 34.62 per ounce. But still losing about 1.5% for the week after recording the worst weekly performance since 1980 last week.

Silver has lost as much as 30% from record highs of $ 49.51 per ounce which was established on 28 April.

Potential bullish for the Aussie post-trade balance.

Aussie lifted by U.S. jobs data better than forecast. Apparently, the data were revived interest in risky assets. Aussie is now back to try the area after a falling $ 1.08 to $ 1.05. Another factor that lifted the Australian dollar is rising again RBA rate hike expectations. Last Friday, in his report, saying the RBA may need to raise interest rates again any time as the growth of mining investments that make unemployment fell and inflation rose.

Aussie currency movements as a whole yesterday's bullish about 110 pips since the Asian trading session begins. Rebounded on daily lowest level at 1.0737 after entering the European session to go to the highest level at 1.0850.

As seen pergerakah Aussie'm bullish inclined sideways. Be careful when falling through the trend line going to happen diagonal sharp correction.

There is no focus on economic data today for the Aussie currency. If price increases are continuing and did not penetrate the diagonal trend line then opened up opportunities to 1.0878 and 1.0947 resistance level. We recommend that if a decline continues and the trend line diagonal pass then the price can reach the level of support 1.0657.Harga visible line on the graph H1 and M10 MA05 bullish conditions.

While the Stochastic indicator indicates a strong bearish likely fall over the line when his diagonal trend

Dollar Stronger Against Euro But Still Vulnerable On Debt Crisis Greece

The euro edged up higher against the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen at the close Tuesday, although it struggled to gain momentum amid ongoing fears that Greece might have to restructure its debt.

Recent concerns about debt problems in the outskirts of the eurozone countries has pushed the euro rose more than 5 cents below the recent peak near $ 1.50, reached last week. Traders expect the euro to slide further, approaching support around $ 1.4150 in the coming days.

The euro rose earlier after the Dow Jones News reported the Greeks can receive new help a number of â, ¬ 60 billion as soon as possible in June to help meet the funding requirements. The currency slid back after Greece has denied the report.

The euro rose 0.3 percent at $ 1.4403, well above the session low of $ 1.4270 on trading platform EBS. It reached the peak closing at $ 1.4412 in afternoon trade as gains in U.S. stocks encouraged risk appetite.

Analysts said the euro vulnerable to rising concerns of debt even if investors stay focused on prospects for interest rates higher in the euro zone compared with the United States.

A step lower to test support around $ 1.4150, near a low position in mid-April and 38.2 percent retracement of the increase from January to May at around $ 1.4145.

The euro rose 1 percent against the yen at 116.39 yen after earlier sliding to the lowest 6-weeks. Dollar up 0.7 percent at 80.80 yen

Technically, JCI is still potentially strong but must watch out because the stochastic moving ramp starting to look overbought area

E Trading Securities Research reveals candlestick that has been outside the area of the upper line of Bollinger bands and lids right at the resistance line area channeling and RSI still trying to penetrate the overbought line.

"In trading today (3 / 5), JCI is expected to move dikisaran 3820-3867 by shares - shares that can be considered as ITMG MYOR BMRI and write the research.

In trading Monday (2 / 5) The Dow Jones closed down 3 points (0.02%) to the level of 12807.36 after the release of manufacturing data that tercatatat index lower previous estimates. Meanwhile, light sweet crude traded at a price of U.S. $ 113 per barrel (1.25%) on the Nymex after fears of terrorist retaliation for the death of Osama bin Laden to oil installations in the Middle East.

JCI yesterday (2 / 5) closed 29.7 points stronger (0.78%) to a level of 3849.30 following the release of April inflation data that was recorded down (deflation). Recorded a net foreign conduct amounting to Rp674 billion to buy shares of the most widely purchased is BMRI.Jk, PGAS, LPKR, ASII and EARTH.

While the rupiah was recorded fell 20 points to level Rp8.543 per U.S. $. Technically, JCI successfully move strengthened with marubozu white candlestick pattern which indicates a bullish continuation

Stronger US Economy Brings Dollar Higher

US DollarThe US strengthened on the speculation that the solid growth of the US economy will make the Federal Reserve to remove the stimulus and increase the interest rates.

The US gross domestic product grew 3.1 percent in the last quarter of 2010. That’s compared to the previous estimate of 2.8 percent and the forecast of 3.0 percent. The claims for unemployment benefits decreased to 382,000 from 387,000 last week. Analysts suggested a decrease to 388,000.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser told about the necessity to prepare a plan for removing the stimulus from the US economy, saying:

Monetary policy will have to reverse course in the not-too-distant future and begin to remove the massive amount of accommodation it has supplied to the economy. Failure to do so in a timely manner could have serious consequences for inflation and economic stability in the future.

He also said that his “proposed strategy involves raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet concurrently and tying the pace of asset sales to the pace and size of interest rate increases”.

EUR/USD closed at 1.4086 after opening at 1.4171, while GBP/USD fell from the opening price of 1.6120 to 1.6040. USD/JPY opened at 80.99 and closed at 81.33

TAIWAN DOLLAR FELL TO STOCK INDEX

Taiwan Dollar Taiwan Dollar sank today as the nation's stock index fell to its lowest level in five months, slowing the rapid currency appreciation.

Taiex stock index fell as much as 2.6 percent, the biggest loss since August 25. Taiwan currency fell 0.1 percent this week, but has gained 3.9 percent this year so far.

USD / TWD rose from the opening level of 28.9520 to 29.2250, the biggest gain since December 31, at 14:16 GMT

BAD FRANC VS. U.S. DOLLAR ON ECONOMIC REPORT

Swiss Franc Swiss Franc which jumped to a record versus the U.S. dollar after the macroeconomic data shows that U.S. economic growth slows.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's index of manufacturing conditions dropped from 43.4 in March to 18.5 in April. U.S. jobless claims fell to 403,000 last week, while analysts expected a decrease to 394,000.

USD / CHF fell from 0.8879 to 0.8818 today as of 15:06 GMT after earlier reaching a record low 0.8779

FOREX TECHNICAL / FOREX FOREIGN (DOLLARS)

Hearing the words Trading Forex or FX, often arise in your mind of negative thinking that making money on the internet from forex trading (Forex) online is gambling, not kosher, not promising jobs, high risk, requiring large capital, and businesses such useless HYIP ( High Yield Investment Program).

Stereotypes on top cause of business opportunities / business forex trading (forex) is often underestimated in our society. It is not denied because of the local forex traders who often uses half-way play gambling in their clients' money, without any sense of responsibility to the relevant client money. If you happen to win more clients which will include funds for their play. If it is losing money yet still get a commission. Who are victims of course the client (you).

Indeed there are many traders (fund managers) are making money and doing business in a professional and responsible to their clients' funds. But however much better if you own a start trading and making money on the internet through online forex trading without "hand over the fate of" your funds to another party. Why?
1. Because if you've managed to make money on the internet from forex trading with profit stable and constant, then you will not be forever dependent on other parties (fund manager or your boss)
2. In forex trading forex there are so many opportunities (how and trading techniques) in producing and making money. What you need is to find a trading system (trading system) your own personal. That is how or techniques that proved profitable forex trading for you, consistent, and reliable (reliable). If you have found your personal trading system, then the gates of success were there in plain sight
3. If you are already proficient and successful in the business of online trading forex (foreign exchange), will work FOR YOUR MONEY. No rule you will be "prompted" by a friend or relative to play their funds. We ourselves know some traders who have found their own trading system, became very successful and then play their clients' funds until the count of hundreds of thousands of USD (billion rupiah) to millions of U.S. dollars (tens of billions of rupiah). The percentage they get of course very EXTRAORDINARY (thousands USD to tens of thousands of USD per month).

Trading Forex

Foreign currency or collectively, in other words, such as foreign exchange, foreign exchange, forex or FX is also the currency issued by a foreign country as legal tender in the country. Money not only used as legal tender, also developed into a tradable commodity. Own foreign exchange market experienced rapid growth in the early decades of the '70s. As for the causes of foreign exchange grew rapidly among others are:
• The movement of the foreign exchange value of the experiencing significant movement so attractive bagibeberapa certain circles to be involved in the foreign exchange market.
• Business is increasingly global. With the increasingly intense business competition made the company must find new resources that is cheaper, and spread all over the world, giving rise to demand for a particular country's currency.
• The development of telecommunications is so fast with the means of telephone, telex, fax, internet, has given the convenience to market participants to communicate more easily so that transactions are made.
• Gains on foreign exchange markets gained at large tend to increase the desire
various parties tried to gain gain (profit) from foreign exchange movements.

INTERRELATION BETWEEN CAPITAL MARKET AND FOREX MARKET

Capital markets can have an impact on currency markets in various ways. For example, if a strong stock market rally that occurred in the U.S., with the Dow and Nasdaq to register impressive gains, we tend to see a large influx of foreign money into the U.S., because international investors rush in to join the party. This flow of money will be very positive for the U.S. dollar, due to participate in the stock market rally, foreign investors must sell their own domestic currency and buying U.S. dollars. The contrary is also true: if the stock market in the U.S. is playing bad, foreign investors will likely rush to sell U.S. equity ownership and then change back to the U.S. dollar to their local currency - which would have a substantial negative impact on the greenback. This logic can be applied to all other currencies and capital markets around the world. This is also the most basic usage of capital market flows to trade FX

MEANING FOREX

Forex is short for Foreign Exchange, or the exchange of the value of different currencies, forex activity unwittingly or consciously, often carried out by all people in the world, if you travel abroad you must exchange your currency with the currency of your destination country. Or another example of a result of export-import activities, the needs of the market and banking institutions, must be doing activities to exchange currency.
If we trade using petukaran difference between purchase price and sale price to fluctuate by the minute, usually referred to by traders who typically do forex trading through a trading house / brokers! Can an online Internet or via phone, or by manually though!
What is traded on the Foreign Exchange Market / Forex?
The answer, of course, money. Currencies are traded in pairs through a broker or dealer, such as the Euro vs. U.S. Dollar (EUR / USD) or Pound vs. Yen (GBP / JPY).
Unlike stock markets, such as New York Stock Exchange or the Jakarta Stock Exchange, the foreign exchange market has no trade center offices. Located in NY Wallstreet NYSE, JSE, while located in Jakarta. The foreign exchange market can be considered as a market that is "Interbank" or OTC "Over The Counter" for the time trade that continue to follow the trade of each country and can be assumed that the foreign exchange market is open for 24 hours.