Minggu, 03 Juli 2011

Dolar Melemah Karena Data Campuran

Dolar melemah karena penurunan lebih besar dari perkiraan dalam sentimen konsumen AS dan diimbangi menguatnya secara tak terduga dalam kegiatan manufaktur untuk bulan Juni.

Euro diperdagangkan pada $ 1,4527, sedikit berubah dari sebelumnya di level $ 1,4502. Sudah diperdagangkan sekitar $ 1,4469 sebelum data AS. British pound naik 0,3% diperdagangkan pada level $ 1,6069, sementara euro turun 0,02% pada sterling diperdagangkan pada 90,29 pence setelah naik setinggi 90,87 pence tingkat paling tinggi sejak Maret 2010. Dolar berada di level ¥ 80,82, naik dari level sebelumnya di ¥ 80,47.

Bantuan untuk Yunani diharapkan tidak menjadi sentimen Buruk

Bursa Eropa pada perdagangan Jumat mengakhiri rally selama empat hari. Kekhawatiran krisis Yunani sudah reda dan data ekonomi AS yang kuat.

Selama ini penguatan ini didukung ekspektasi voting di parlemen Yunani yang menyetujui penghematan. Ada harapan terhadap bantuan Yunani sehingga tidak menjadi sentimen buruk di pasar. Tidak ada kejutan karena kami melihat apakah konsumen AS menunjukan kenaikan atau tidak.

Ada harapan pemulihan ekonomi global walaupun belum ada kepastian negara penggeraknya. Sebab laju ekonomi China juga melambat dengan ancaman inflasi tinggi. Pasar tinggal mengharapkan laporan keuangan kuartal II.

Selasa, 17 Mei 2011

Aussie Interest Rates helpful info, but Being at Level Saturated Buy

Aussie higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia said the need for higher interest rates. "If economic conditions develop according to expectations, the higher interest rates is needed if inflation is consistent with the medium-term targets,"the RBA minutes released Tuesday. Finance Minister Martin Parkinson also optimistic that the Aussie will follow the good trail and export performance will remain at high levels for a while.

"Minutes of the meeting were optimistic and raised the RBA rate hike expectations," said Mitul Kotecha, strategic Credit Agricole. "Overall, positive impact for the Aussie. No statement did not mention the RBA will raise interest rates. "Credit Suisse index swaps show the RBA will raise interest rates by 34 basis points over the next 12 months, more than likely 28 basis points on 3 May.

Viewed from the stochastic indicator, the Aussie has been at level 80 which indicates that the Aussie was at overbought levels. The Aussie has the potential to back down to the nearest support level at 1.0578. While the nearest resistance level at 1.0633

Sterling Yen Bullish?

Japanese currency erodes the fall yesterday to reach the peak of 80.98. Yen is still in a period ranging with the projection has not changed, traded between 80.10 and 81.40 since mid last week.

"Indicators per hour shows a bearish signal is thin, the price of losing momentum in high school under 20," said Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst FXStreet.com. While the indicators of JPY 4 hour show is still constrained below the middle and moving up. "Moves Sideways, the yen should recovered above the 81.50 area to continue to rise, "said Bednarik. Meanwhile, if broken below the 80.00 level, a bearish acceleration might lead to a closer level of 79.00 yen.

For the pound sterling strengthened traded in the range of 1.6280 after the release of CPI inflation data exceeded expectations. The focus of the next market will be focused on meeting the EU Finance Ministers for European sovereign debt crisis resolution.

Based on technical studies, intraday bias is still bullish, especially after successfully penetrating consistently GBP upwards to target the 1.6250 key resistance area at 1.6320. But as long as price is still trading below 1.6380 area is still dominant bearish outlook


Bailout 78 billion euros to Portugal and Greece postponement of decision for the days of difficulty until the meeting next month negative impact the weakening euro in the next few trading sessions. Nikko Sekurities analyst predicts the euro may weaken to levels of 1:33. Strengthening above the 1.4150 level will trigger a rally kelevel 1.4252, 1.4345 and 1.4450. The weakening below 1.4150 level will trigger a rally kelevel 1.4056, 1.3960 and 1.3860. Euro likely to weaken if it fails again rose steadily above the 1.4180 resistance level daily.

Recommendation: Sell / Buy Euro dilevel 1.4200 with a target profit taking dilevel 1.4015, 1.3905 and 1.3730 with target 1.4300 stop loss.

Statement of the Japanese Central Bank Governor who said the economy in a very difficult situation after the tsunami and earthquake effects provide the fundamental impetus for the weakening yen disesi asia.Penguatan below level will trigger a rally kelevel 80.83 80.62, 80.40 and 80.83 80.19.Pelemahan above level will trigger a rally kelevel 81.05 , 81.27 and stable above 81.48.Pelemahan 81.25-81.45 level will give a strong signal of the weakening yen rally towards the target level of consolidation 81.85-82.30.